The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Surprising Title Charge
A mere eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six games, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
According to Opta, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.