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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd