Will the Scottish team at last end the All Blacks hoodoo?

Rugby action
New Zealand implemented multiple changes to the team that defeated the Irish team

International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh When: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Match moment
Graham crossed the line in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in 2022

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.

Tammy Smith
Tammy Smith

A passionate football journalist with over 10 years of experience covering Italian football and Serie B teams.